What do ‘Probability Laws’ say about evolution?

To determine the mathematical sum of evolutionary probability we must employ the two rules of mathematical probability; The Law of Averages and The Multiplication Rule. The Law of Averages determines how many runs (attempts) are required for a simple cell to gather the required information necessary to form life, before it becomes a mathematical possibility. As it continues its attempt at self-organization, however, eventually it mathematically levels out to almost absolute predictability (equilibrium)– that is, the longer run serves to average out the fluctuation that you would experience in a shorter series. The longer it takes to reach such equilibrium, the greater the odds of accomplishment.

The Multiplication Rule is a bit more involved as it is the process of counting the number of possible outcomes of each step and then multiplying these numbers.(1) This rule is most often used where the various outcomes of a particular step are all equally probable and the steps are independent.

To build your understanding of the answer, let me offer an experiment using 10 quarter-dollars numbered one through ten and placed in a baseball cap. If we are calculating the chances of grabbing the number one coin on the first draw followed by the number two coin on the second draw we would first recognize that each draw represents a 1 x 10 chance (one chance out of 10 coins). When we draw for the second coin, there are also 10 possible outcomes as there are ten coins to choose from thus, the odds of drawing the number two coin on the second attempt is 1 x 10 x 10, or, 1 in 100. So the chance of getting the two desired coins in order is 1 in 100. The probability is 1/100, on the average. This means if we make enough attempts, about once in every 100 draws, the number one coin will be followed by the number two coin.

To attempt to draw all 10 coins in order we must multiply 10 by itself until the figure is used 10 times. 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 = 1010, or, 10,000,000,000. In this one example (short run), chance would succeed on the average only once in ten billion attempts.

At this point short runs would produce great deviations and so long runs would be required to then institute the law of averages and average out the results. This would give us the absolute - odds, as the average number would be identified as absolute equilibrium.

As I will clearly demonstrate, the laws of chance and mathematical probability are of no friend to the worshippers of evolution. All scientists are aware the idea of life forming by natural processes has been demonstrated to be in contradiction to these laws.(2)

To calculate the odds of evolution it must first be pointed out that each promoted, evolutionary step requires an entire set of complex biological changes where a living system must increase its information before evolving to the next level. To assertain with absolute certainty, each change in itself must be subjected to these two laws. If we examine the complete evolution of dinosaurs evolving into birds, as preached by the worshippers of evolution, to properly determine the probability, each biological step must be calculated and its number will compound along the way. Since I'm already aware the odds for evolution represents a number beyond human comprehension, I will simplify the process for your understanding by calculating the evolutionary odds of a tiny insulin molecule, which is an initial step required for life to evolve.

What is the probability a protein molecule, with all of its complex designs, might have evolved and been aligned by chance? These giant molecules are the chemical basis of all life and amongst the first ones to be mapped was insulin, which is the smallest molecule qualifying as a protein. It has fifty-one amino acid "links," in two strands, one with twenty-one and the other with thirty amino acids. The two strands are joined together by "sulfur bridges."(3) To bring this about, the cell first constructs a longer chain of more than 80 amino acids called "proinsulin." It ranges in length from around 81 to 86 in various animals. We will use an insulin molecule of length 84 amino acids of which can be found in a pig to determine our calculations.

This extended sequence of 84 units causes the chain to fold and cross-bond correctly, and then a particular section of 33 units is cut out by special enzymes, leaving the final 51 amino acids in two chains properly oriented with cross links between them.

Chance will therefore need to align 84 amino acids in correct order to form proinsulin, as the precursor for insulin. Since each of the 84 positions in the chain could be occupied by anyone of the 20 kinds, the total possible arrangements is 2084, which, after conversion to base 10, is approximately 10109. The different arrangements are considered equally probable; so the probability of any one molecule being in the correct order for insulin is 1 in 10109.

Remember, this is a 1 followed by 109 zeros and this is just one extremely small step along the promoted evolutionary trail. And to maintain our perspective, this is just the odds of getting one of the 400 or more proteins of the hypothetical minimum cell proposed by the evolutionists (real world ‘simple’ bacteria have about 2,000 proteins and are incredibly complex). Moreover, the program of the cell, encoded on the DNA, is also needed. In fact, the idea of such a simple cell forming by chance, using all the required ingredients, is worse than 1 in 1057800 – that is a 1 followed by 57,800 zeroes.(4) To put this number in perspective, it would take 11 full pages of magazine type to print this number.

So we can see the microscopic chance of the formation of an insulin molecule being a number most people will never understand and as we migrate up the process to that of a fully developed cell, the numbers are beyond our comprehension. Dr. Emile Borel, who first formulated the basic Law of Probability, determined that the occurrence of an event where the chances are beyond 1 chance in 1050 (the 200th power is used for scientific calculations), is an event which we can state with certainty will never happen, regardless of the time allotted or how many opportunities could exist for the event to take place.(5) The mathematical probability of a single living cell arising spontaneously has been calculated over and over again by evolutionary scientists and they have been unable to come up with a figure which falls under Borel's upper limit!

Let's look at the odds for evolution within other biological processes:

Odds calculated using probability theory associated with the evolution of the gene that encodes:

• The lens in the vertebrate eye = 1 chance in 2 x 1086
• One of the many proteins required to convert food to energy = 1 chance in 1.7 x 1048
• A protein required for cell locomotion = 1 chance in 1x10177